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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 8

What Actually Happened

(:44) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model