Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 80

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 18

(7:36) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 40 for 11 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither; 31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model