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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 32 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 10 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.23 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP