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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 3-C.York 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-B.Hill), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model