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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 54

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 10-K.Huber punts 23 yards to CLE 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model