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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to CIN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 30 for 15 yards (42-T.Fields; 43-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 30, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model