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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 21

New England Patriots 3 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.44 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model