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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 48

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model