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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 89

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to NE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NYJ 27 for 32 yards (72-M.Clemons).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model