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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 27

New England Patriots 16 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model