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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 39

New England Patriots 19 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP