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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 33

New England Patriots 19 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model