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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 5 at the 30
New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 22
What Actually Happened
(8:54) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Conklin.
The Three Options
GO
+0.91 EP
What Happened
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
- 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.37 EP
KICK
+1.08 EP
Model's Pick
- 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
