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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 64

New England Patriots 22 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to NYJ 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.99 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP