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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 81

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 30 for no gain (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model