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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 53

New England Patriots 22 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to NYJ 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model