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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model