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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model