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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 45

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 7-B.Mann punts 38 yards to BUF 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model