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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 32

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to BUF 27 for 5 yards (7-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model