Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Jets 17 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model