Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 17 – New York Jets 17

(8:05) 8-S.Martin punts 50 yards to NYJ 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model