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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 90

Detroit Lions 8 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to GB 46, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model