Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 3 at the 43
Detroit Lions 15 – Green Bay Packers 9
What Actually Happened
(2:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.47 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.40 EP
- 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.71 EP
KICK
+0.03 EP
- 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT
-0.61 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
