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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 9 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-S.Toure to DET 17 for 32 yards (1-J.Okudah). FUMBLES (1-J.Okudah), touched at DET 17, ball out of bounds at DET 17.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model