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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 9 – Detroit Lions 15

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 11-S.Watkins.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP