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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 77

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 31 for 12 yards (8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model