Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 6-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 31-Jo.Jones, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by NE-41-B.Schooler at IND 8. 41-B.Schooler to IND 2 for 6 yards (6-M.Haack).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model