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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NE 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.43 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model