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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 62

New England Patriots 13 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to IND 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 30 for 8 yards (30-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model