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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(:21) 7-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model