Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 13

(13:34) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to NE 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-33-D.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model