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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 22

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.53 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model