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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 75

New England Patriots 16 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to IND 36, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model