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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 6-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -2.01 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model