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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 35-D.Jackson right end to IND 45 for no gain (9-M.Judon).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model