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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 10

New England Patriots 16 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model