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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 51

New England Patriots 19 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to IND 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-K.Coutee to IND 11 for 4 yards (41-B.Schooler, 18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 51, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model