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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass incomplete deep right to 1-P.Campbell (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.98 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model