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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 6-M.Haack punts 29 yards to NE 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model