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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 31

New England Patriots 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP