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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to LA 19, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-98-A.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP