4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 82

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 11-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to TB 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.80 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP