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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 64 yards to TB 1, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 10 for 9 yards (97-M.Hoecht).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model