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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to LA 11, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 43, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model