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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 11-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 47 for 15 yards (53-E.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.21 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model