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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at TB 47 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.97 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.84 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model