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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.90 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.96 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model