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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 3-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model