Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(13:44) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to JAX 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 30 for 13 yards (45-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model